Strategy Question

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Jun 9, 2011
2
1
CASTRO VALLEY,CA
12u B level Sunday bracket game. Time has officially expired, finish the inning.

Visitors batting, trailing 5-3
1 out
Runners 1st and 3rd, both average speed
#2 hitter at the plate is 0-1, BB on the day
#3 hitter follows and is 1-2 with two hard hit balls

Catcher has average arm but its 12B. I’d estimate 25-30% chance of throwing out sn average speed runner stealing 2nd with 5% chance ball ends up in CF and runner advances to third.

First game of the day, pitcher is fresh and at 50 pitches.

It’s clear runner at 1B plans to steal second. One coach wants to let trail runner take the bag on next pitch without a throw. Other coach wants to throw down.

Knowing just the above and needing to make a decision in 30 seconds—-How would you play it?
 

PDM

Jun 18, 2019
107
28
NJ
I mean, a quick decision tree with only two options (throw/don't throw).

Don't throw = 100% 5-3 R2/R3, 1 out
Throw = 25% 5-4, 2 outs; 75% 5-4, R2, 1 out

Answer is probably don't throw. But better answer is at least try a play, throw to SS or 3B and look to catch R3 jumping (though it likely results in same as no throw).
If you throw, you risk a bad throw leading not only to the lead runner scoring, but the runner on first ending up on third. And that runner on first could even end up crossing the plate if there is a bad throw while trying to get her out going to third. I've seen it so many times one even higher levels than 12B that throwing just isn't worth the possible reward unless you have a lot of confidence in your catcher's arm.
 

RADcatcher

Possibilities & Opportunities!
Dec 13, 2019
4,147
113
California
Anything the defense does
is depending on the defense!

Depend on
1. The pitcher to be able to not walk batters.
2. The defense to field the ball and complete throws across the field.
3. The catcher to be able to throw to bases.

Catchers Pop times are~
One defensive player
Throwing the ball playing catch with another defensive player, and a tag.
Each already knowing where the throw is going.

If you cant/dont depend on defense being able to play catch, and a tag...
Seems then you cant/dont depend on the same defense to field a hit ball, that can go anywhere on the field, and a throw.

Playing catch should be easier!
If its not...
Certainly there are harder issues to tackle than strategy! ;)

imo
When on defense,
Runners on bases represent outs!

GO DEFENSE ATTACK!
 
Jun 8, 2016
9,307
113
US just let the potential go ahead run steal second without a throw on a first and third and two outs (after walking intentionally the runner who was on first...) :LOL:

Abbott did end up striking the batter out.
 
Feb 1, 2021
236
43
Haven't read all the posts but I have seen one scenario play out 100% of the time in our favor. You ready? I honestly can't believe I am saying this because it sounds risky, but again, our coach does it regularly and it has worked EVERY single time.

Depending on the hitter, what the runner on first does can change. Some will hold at 1 to better the odds the batter is pitched to. If the runner takes second, let them have it and then walk the batter to load the bases. Pull your infield in just a fraction with the corners protecting the lines. Then throw either in on the hands or low and outside. I'm talking 'believable balls'. You don't want a super slow roller, but you want to boost your chances of getting a 'poke' off the bat instead of solid contact.
 

RADcatcher

Possibilities & Opportunities!
Dec 13, 2019
4,147
113
California
US just let the potential go ahead run steal second without a throw on a first and third and two outs (after walking intentionally the runner who was on first...) :LOL:

Abbott did end up striking the batter out.
Generous ;)
Give 'em first, and second...
 
Nov 20, 2020
563
93
SW Missouri
Haven't read all the posts but I have seen one scenario play out 100% of the time in our favor. You ready? I honestly can't believe I am saying this because it sounds risky, but again, our coach does it regularly and it has worked EVERY single time.

Depending on the hitter, what the runner on first does can change. Some will hold at 1 to better the odds the batter is pitched to. If the runner takes second, let them have it and then walk the batter to load the bases. Pull your infield in just a fraction with the corners protecting the lines. Then throw either in on the hands or low and outside. I'm talking 'believable balls'. You don't want a super slow roller, but you want to boost your chances of getting a 'poke' off the bat instead of solid contact.

DD’s school ball coach would do this. It worked every time. It would be late in a 1 or 2 run game and he’d do it. Stressed me out. Girls handled it just fine.
 
Feb 1, 2021
236
43
DD’s school ball coach would do this. It worked every time. It would be late in a 1 or 2 run game and he’d do it. Stressed me out. Girls handled it just fine.

I felt the same. Seems like it shouldn't work and its just trouble in the making. Its almost spooky just how well it worked.

Now if I was a coach and tried it, it would flop. No doubt about it. Lol.
 

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