Strategy Question

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Aug 3, 2019
156
28
12u B level Sunday bracket game. Time has officially expired, finish the inning.

Visitors batting, trailing 5-3
1 out
Runners 1st and 3rd, both average speed
#2 hitter at the plate is 0-1, BB on the day
#3 hitter follows and is 1-2 with two hard hit balls

Catcher has average arm but its 12B. I’d estimate 25-30% chance of throwing out sn average speed runner stealing 2nd with 5% chance ball ends up in CF and runner advances to third.

First game of the day, pitcher is fresh and at 50 pitches.

It’s clear runner at 1B plans to steal second. One coach wants to let trail runner take the bag on next pitch without a throw. Other coach wants to throw down.

Knowing just the above and needing to make a decision in 30 seconds—-How would you play it?
 
Jun 8, 2016
16,118
113
From what I have seen at that level/age if the team doesn’t have any 1st and 3rd plays for this situation they typically just give the kid second mainly because your 25% number is probably a bit high…
 
Dec 15, 2018
809
93
CT
I mean, a quick decision tree with only two options (throw/don't throw).

Don't throw = 100% 5-3 R2/R3, 1 out
Throw = 25% 5-4, 2 outs; 75% 5-4, R2, 1 out

Answer is probably don't throw. But better answer is at least try a play, throw to SS or 3B and look to catch R3 jumping (though it likely results in same as no throw).
 
May 16, 2016
1,024
113
Illinois
I say you throw down. The runner at third is not an important run. If you throw the runner out now you got 2 outs and bases are empty. That scenario looks pretty good. If it does not work you got runners on 2nd and 3rd, 1 out, or a runner on 2nd and the score might be 4-5 and still 1 out.

I don't think that runner on third is going to be very aggresive since she is not the tying or winning run.
 
May 16, 2016
1,024
113
Illinois
You are making a large assumption here regarding the quality of the 3B coach..😫

I sure am.

I have seen 3rd base coaches do some really silly stuff against us. Example- We are up 8 runs, 1st and 3rd no outs and we are on defense. Runner on first is a big girl so I assume she can't be that fast. Of course she tries to steal first and we throw her out. We give up the run on the throw down. That coach most likely ruined his chances at having a big inning since now it is bases empty 1 out. Happens all the time.
 
Oct 26, 2019
1,375
113
Am I missing something? Why wouldn’t you throw to second and try to get the tying runner out? Who cares if the girl at 3rd scores - that run is purely cosmetic. You throw her out you most likely win the game. She steals second safely and you were no worse off anyway.
 
Jul 8, 2021
17
3
12u B level Sunday bracket game. Time has officially expired, finish the inning.

Visitors batting, trailing 5-3
1 out
Runners 1st and 3rd, both average speed
#2 hitter at the plate is 0-1, BB on the day
#3 hitter follows and is 1-2 with two hard hit balls

Catcher has average arm but its 12B. I’d estimate 25-30% chance of throwing out sn average speed runner stealing 2nd with 5% chance ball ends up in CF and runner advances to third.

First game of the day, pitcher is fresh and at 50 pitches.

It’s clear runner at 1B plans to steal second. One coach wants to let trail runner take the bag on next pitch without a throw. Other coach wants to throw down.

Knowing just the above and needing to make a decision in 30 seconds—-How would you play it?
Catcher throws to the shortstop who is coming in as she throws, and let's hope runner on 3rd takes off for a play at the plate. Has worked numerous times for me.
 
Jun 8, 2016
16,118
113
Am I missing something? Why wouldn’t you throw to second and try to get the tying runner out? Who cares if the girl at 3rd scores - that run is purely cosmetic. You throw her out you most likely win the game. She steals second safely and you were no worse off anyway.
💯 but not what usually happens for whatever reason ( well I know the reason 😂)
 

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