So, tell me your theories on stealing.

[radness]

I find stop watches to be helpful. Can get very consistent using this tool.

Often it can appear that a catcher has a great pop time because they may have a gun of an arm.

*However may have lousy efficiency in mechanics and take too long between when they received the ball and actually release it.
Slows pop time.

 

[_MIA_]

For D3 softball (as an example) and stealing 2B with no outs.

If you tried to steal 10 times and were successful 7 times (eg 70% success rate) you would
gain 2.744 runs for the successful steals and lose 2.754 runs for the 3 unsuccessful attempts.

It obviously gets worse for the more times caught stealing and better for a higher percentage of successful steals.

 

[Itsabouttime]

We had a coach once who liked to have the runner on 1b steal if he had the leadoff batter up with two strikes and two outs. Worst case - leadoff starts the next inning with new at bat. Best case - runner on 2b.

 

[Rolling Hard]

For D3 softball (as an example) and stealing 2B with no outs.

If you tried to steal 10 times and were successful 7 times (eg 70% success rate) you would
gain 2.744 runs for the successful steals and lose 2.754 runs for the 3 unsuccessful attempts.

It obviously gets worse for the more times caught stealing and better for a higher percentage of successful steals.

What are the numbers if the sucess rate is 85%? How about 90%?
If sucess rate of 70% is a coaching error.

 

[_MIA_]

What are the numbers if the sucess rate is 85%? How about 90%?
If sucess rate of 70% is a coaching error.

Do your own math..I got stuff to do

As you can see 70% is about break even. Anything above that you will gain runs, anything below that you will lose runs..in terms of decisions that is all you really need to know.

 

[_MIA_]

If you want to see if there is a trend regarding level of play and that break even percentage, do D1 and D2 as well and see if there is a difference.Not sure how well that trend will extrapolate down to 18's,16's, etc though.
'

 

[ANNASDAD]

I've already been watching the pitcher, catcher, and SS during their warmups and have a pretty good idea of what they're capable of, unless the catcher is sandbagging like Eric said. I'm going to run-run-run my girls until they show me they can stop me! I'm going to create chaos and keep the defense on pins and needles. It's something I'm very good at!

My girls better read every pitch and she better me moving if she knows the pitch is going to be in the dirt!

Now.....if it's a shutdown catcher, that changes everything and it all becomes situational, even then she better be paying attention, cause I am! In HS ball we've usually only had four, maybe five solid hitters, so the girls who aren't great hitters are definitely going to know how to contribute when they get to me at 1B, it's something I believe should be practiced a lot, it just may win you a State Championship!

 

[_MIA_]

My theory is to let the coach do whatever the hell he/she wants (because really who cares..it is amateur softball and it isn’t going to hurt my kid’s development if they run around the bases like morons) but if they start stealing bases down by 6 runs I may start turning purple and muttering to myself just out of habit…

 

[KrisHur]

Not quite stealing but thoughts on running on defensive indifference? DD played on a team where it was always let go and then on a team that seemed to always throw. The team that threw seemed to lose more runs than catch runners at 2nd so I never understood, but then again I'm no coach. Surely the coach had a reason.

 

[Gambler Bob]

We had a coach once who liked to have the runner on 1b steal if he had the leadoff batter up with two strikes and two outs. Worst case - leadoff starts the next inning with new at bat. Best case - runner on 2b.

That makes common sense to me. No idea if it makes mathematical sense in terms of scoring more runs. I personally like to steal with two outs more than I would with 1 outs or less with a runner on first.