WHAT WINS GAMES

[ANNASDAD]

If you follow the Moneyball formula, assuming the team has average but solid fielding, hitting and baserunning and serviceable pitching, I think a team could win a lot of games, but said team will not win championships without shutdown pitching. Behind every shutdown pitcher is a great catcher and I would build a team around that.

Even though I’m still going to stick with the hitting side of things, I definitely see, and understand what you’re saying!

I said here recently that we hosted a JMU camp at our organizations facility, Mickey Dean, and I quote, said ”pitchers don’t win games…..pitchers lose games!”

Not quite sure I’m on board with his philosophy here, but I can somewhat get what he’s saying. He was a huge hit with the pitchers that day!

Your money ball theory…..I can shoot it down pretty quickly, why did the Braves only win the 1995 World Series with that insane pitching staff?? How often does a Maddux-Smoltz-Glavine-Avery combination come along on the same roster?? And they were together what, 5, 6, 7 years? And got one WS out of it, why?

Serious question, why just one World Series from arguably the best pitching staff ever? Tons of NL Pennants are great, but…..

 

[_MIA_]

Serious question, why just one World Series from arguably the best pitching staff ever? Tons of NL Pennants are great, but…..

Power pitchers win in the playoffs. They also had some crappy luck in a few of those series if I remember correctly..

 

[chinamigarden]

More base hits?
Or
Less errors?

*Say on teams facing eachother with equal abilities.


Add what age bracket to comments...if that matters...

Based on the level of defense I have seen in D 1 I would say most coaches would say Hitting

 

[cnardone]

Serious question, why just one World Series from arguably the best pitching staff ever? Tons of NL Pennants are great, but…..

Andy Petite, David Cone, Roger Clemens Mariano Reviera

 

[Traps71]

Just to add some more grist for discussion. In looking at D1 stats over the last couple of years, the best teams in the country (those ranked in the top 25), generally have at least three thing:

1. A team ERA of 3.00 or better
2. A team fielding percentage of .960 or better
3. An average runs scored of about 5.00.

In my travels, such as they are, I have consistently found 6 runs to be the magic number, where your chances of winning the game rise sharply. 5 runs give you a decent chance of winning, 6 or more gives you a great chance. Score less than 5 runs consistently and you will probably be losing a lot of games.

I am sure the Stat heads could find more sophisticated ways to cut it, but if you want to even have a chance to be in contention, you need to have all three major dimensions of the game (Pitching, Hitting, Fielding) at a high-level. At that level, mistakes, (even slight) underperformance, and dumb luck generally seem to determine the outcome.

 

[ANNASDAD]

Andy Petite, David Cone, Roger Clemens Mariano Reviera

Okay, arguably one of.....

 

[bmakj]

I will say it again, most champions are not near the tippy top (say top 5%) in either category (O or D), but much better than average at both (ie very good to great, say top 15%).

it is a balance. especially in single elimination, where one off day at the plate by a couple of hitters and a single error can derail a normally great team.

 

[whiporee]

I think a lot of coaches stress the importance of defense because it is easier to coach and practice. It's hard to practice hitting. So defense gets stressed because it's fundamentally a controllable, while overall hitting is not.

But as for winning, I'm with Traps more often than not. If you can consistently score six runs, you're in most games and you'll win a lot more than you lose. But more importantly, if you can hit, you're rarely out of games, where if you can't hit, a bad inning can put games out of reach.

 

[radness]

Just to add some more grist for discussion. In looking at D1 stats over the last couple of years, the best teams in the country (those ranked in the top 25), generally have at least three thing:

1. A team ERA of 3.00 or better
2. A team fielding percentage of .960 or better
3. An average runs scored of about 5.00.

In my travels, such as they are, I have consistently found 6 runs to be the magic number, where your chances of winning the game rise sharply. 5 runs give you a decent chance of winning, 6 or more gives you a great chance. Score less than 5 runs consistently and you will probably be losing a lot of games.

I am sure the Stat heads could find more sophisticated ways to cut it, but if you want to even have a chance to be in contention, you need to have all three major dimensions of the game (Pitching, Hitting, Fielding) at a high-level. At that level, mistakes, (even slight) underperformance, and dumb luck generally seem to determine the outcome.

Good post!
intersting 5 runs to win.
How many accumulative hits only would this take?

What i notice is there is a measurable amount of baserunners that dont come from base hits in most every game.
Perhaps a stats person has accumulated that % to share.

There is another good question for DFP in Traps#2 notation~
Fielding % of atleast .960
(is a MUCH higher # than hitting averages)
*Does that mean its more critical?
Perhaps in doing the #'s compairison to being at bat.
Batters can compensate for better pitchers using small ball.
But the defense still has the challenge of completing the play.

How many people/coaches actually keep defensive stats?!!!
team & individual~
Who does?

 

[NBECoach]

Good post!
intersting 5 runs to win.
How many accumulative hits only would this take?

What i notice is there is a measurable amount of baserunners that dont come from base hits in most every game.
Perhaps a stats person has accumulated that % to share.

There is another good question for DFP in Traps#2 notation~
Fielding % of atleast .960
(is a MUCH higher # than hitting averages)
*Does that mean its more critical?
Perhaps in doing the #'s compairison to being at bat.
Batters can compensate for better pitchers using small ball.
But the defense still has the challenge of completing the play.

How many people/coaches actually keep defensive stats?!!!
team & individual~
Who does?

I keep bare bones defensive stats
E-Throwing, E-Fielding, A, P O, PB, per player and totaled for team.