GO/AO stat in game changer.

[uncdrew]

It should include pop-ups though if you want the data the OP is looking for.

Fly ball pitchers are also pop-up pitchers. More balls in the air = more chances for them to not leave the infield. That said, the difference in the amount of these "automatic outs" (if only) is probably so small that it's not more meaningful than, say, strike out rate.

Being a fly ball pitcher is not really a red flag in the sense that ground ball pitcher = good and fly ball pitcher = bad. I think the assumption you're making is that every fly ball is hit hard. They're not. You want pitchers who don't give up hard contact.

Yup.

Our P1 gives up mostly fly balls. Our P3 gives up mostly ground balls.

But our P1 has a better ERA, WHIP, BAA, Ks, etc. etc. She also pitches the harder games.

The stats might be interesting, but the better pitcher is the better pitcher. And that's determined without the GO/AO ratio.

 

[CoachCeetar]

I haven't checked GC - is foul tip really a stat that's tracked? Did you mean foul ball %? I'd agree that I see more foul tips in SB than BB - but remember that a foul tip isn't just a ball that the batter "just missed" and fouled off - it has to be caught by the catcher. I think if you get more than 3 a game, that's a rarity. I would expect there to be many more swings and misses than foul tips in 99% of games played.

I'm still at 14U, but I don't think squared up balls in SB get caught very often. A fly ball out is rarely squared up. Remember we're dealing with 190'-200' fences, where mis-hits are often homers in college. Squared up line drives - sure, if it's hit at someone. But the handful of fly balls my daughter has squared up were either off or over the fence.

But again - we're talking about a difference of about 1-2 inches at the most that determines whether contact results in a dribbler, hard grounder, line drive, fly ball, or pop-up.

for foul tips, I didn't mean as a stat, just that the batter makes contact with a pitch in a way that doesn't put it in play. Specifically under/over because there's just more ball, so perhaps more weak contact in general. If you miss a baseball by 2inches, you miss it, miss a softball by 2" and it's a foul.

Do you think non-squared up balls reach the outfielders though? I'm positing that just what you said, that if you have a lot of AO it's because they were line drives/fly balls that just happened to be hit right at fielders, and that that's a red flag for the pitcher, because the batters are putting a lot of charge into the ball to get it in the air and into the outfield.

All this requires some pretty flawless stat recording though.

 

[daywalkerdad]

Do you think non-squared up balls reach the outfielders though?

Yes. Particularly when the square it up it goes over 200’. Miss hits will go 150’-180’.

 

[CoachJD]

Do you think non-squared up balls reach the outfielders though?

Probably not at 10u, but we've all seen home runs at the college level that were not squared up.

Increased pitch velocities + stronger hitters + short fences + supercharged bats are all a recipe for the ball going farther even if you don't put the best possible swing on the ball.

 

[CoachCeetar]

That only lends data to the idea that air outs are an indication of impending doom. I don't really mean "just missed" type fly balls though, was thinking more of are there poorly hit balls that fly 100+ feet that you think "yup, good pitch there, take that every time"? Or do you think "whew, she just missed that." or "If that was a better hitter that'd be gone"?

 

[uncdrew]

That only lends data to the idea that air outs are an indication of impending doom. I don't really mean "just missed" type fly balls though, was thinking more of are there poorly hit balls that fly 100+ feet that you think "yup, good pitch there, take that every time"? Or do you think "whew, she just missed that." or "If that was a better hitter that'd be gone"?

Yeah, my DD tends to give up more pop outs than other pitchers. And of course that's good. A pop-up to the 2B is a great outcome in my opinion. Keeps pitch count low, doesn't let runners advance, etc.

 

[Gags]

was thinking more of are there poorly hit balls that fly 100+ feet that you think "yup, good pitch there, take that every time"? Or do you think "whew, she just missed that." or "If that was a better hitter that'd be gone"?

If you're being intentional about the distances you're using in your posts - I will take a 100' fly ball every pitch of the game - barring a few that drop in, that sounds like a catchable ball nearly every time. (I believe HP-2B is ~88' - another 10-20' past that is only shallow CF). Now if you said 150'+ fly ball - then I'd start getting worried - if the OF'ers are rarely moving in to catch them, or need to drift back a few feet each time - then I'd agree that you're entering the "playing with fire" zone.

Do you think non-squared up balls reach the outfielders though?

I'm going off foggy memory - but it sounds like you're coaching at the 10U/12U level. Please take the following suggestion in a sincere way - I'm not trying to sounds snide - but have you ever stepped in the box either against your pitchers or hit off front toss to them?

My 14U's pitch around mid-50's. Some practices, I'll stand in the box and have them pitch to me, with the actual runners starting off to the side. (It lets them get more live-ball reads, without having to wait for a player to swing and make contact). Point being - I'm barely swinging (almost slapping as a RHB) - and if I square it up, it's still a pretty solid hit to the OF or into the gap. I think once you take some swings, or just self-toss, you should be able to realize how far the ball will go even on a mis-hit.

Like Drew is referring to with his daughter - pop-ups are great. Can really take the momentum out of any rallies or get in the head of a hitter. From personal experience, if I hit a hard grounder, but am out, it sucks, but not the end of the world. I pop-up to the IF, or worse, to the catcher - man, that just eats at me until my next AB. Mentally, it's worse than a strike out.

 

[daywalkerdad]

Yeah, my DD tends to give up more pop outs than other pitchers. And of course that's good. A pop-up to the 2B is a great outcome in my opinion. Keeps pitch count low, doesn't let runners advance, etc.

Saw one mlb metric weighting pop outs similar to strike outs.
My observation at a certain age maybe 12-15 is fly balls are very advantageous. The outfield becomes pretty good, players are strong enough to hit the ball with lots of hang time, but not good enough for many mis hit home runs.

 

[CoachCeetar]

If you're being intentional about the distances you're using in your posts - I will take a 100' fly ball every pitch of the game - barring a few that drop in, that sounds like a catchable ball nearly every time. (I believe HP-2B is ~88' - another 10-20' past that is only shallow CF). Now if you said 150'+ fly ball - then I'd start getting worried - if the OF'ers are rarely moving in to catch them, or need to drift back a few feet each time - then I'd agree that you're entering the "playing with fire" zone.


I'm going off foggy memory - but it sounds like you're coaching at the 10U/12U level. Please take the following suggestion in a sincere way - I'm not trying to sounds snide - but have you ever stepped in the box either against your pitchers or hit off front toss to them?

My 14U's pitch around mid-50's. Some practices, I'll stand in the box and have them pitch to me, with the actual runners starting off to the side. (It lets them get more live-ball reads, without having to wait for a player to swing and make contact). Point being - I'm barely swinging (almost slapping as a RHB) - and if I square it up, it's still a pretty solid hit to the OF or into the gap. I think once you take some swings, or just self-toss, you should be able to realize how far the ball will go even on a mis-hit.

Like Drew is referring to with his daughter - pop-ups are great. Can really take the momentum out of any rallies or get in the head of a hitter. From personal experience, if I hit a hard grounder, but am out, it sucks, but not the end of the world. I pop-up to the IF, or worse, to the catcher - man, that just eats at me until my next AB. Mentally, it's worse than a strike out.

I am not being intentional with distances, no. I don't mean clear popups, really any ball that's hit sky high. Doesn't matter how hard you hit it if you're launch angle is that high. I'm thinking more like the OFers caught 6 fly balls today, is that sustainable? Dial it back a step, the batter identified and swung at a pitch that they made at least reasonable contact with, and it went pretty far. Did they "just miss", or did the pitcher get them to do exactly what they wanted? Sometimes it's the second, it was a changeup and the batter tried to slow down to hit it, and ended up not putting as strong a charge into it, but I'd argue that a lot of it's the first one, that the batter was all over it and just barely missed, or the wind was slightly stronger, or it was right at a fielder.

I'm coaching 10u (and whatever you'd call 1st/second grade coach pitch), my daughter is 9 (and 6). I'm still at the "I wouldn't step in against them because I'd be scared of hurting them" stage. I'm really thinking more college, top level stuff. Just from a general philosophy.

At the lower levels I could easily see a pitcher getting a lot of crappy contact and easy fly outs to CF, that at a higher level would be HRs and doubles, etc. (of course at the lower lower levels, any contact is much more often a hit). Especially as for at least a few years, pitcher's are going to be learning new pitchers, getting stronger, etc. The batters may be bigger/stronger too, but they're essentially trying to do the same thing--hit the ball, that's suddenly curving/spinning/dropping/rising in a way that they didn't see as much the previous years. A ball that suddenly doesn't drop like it did last year is gonna lead to a lot more pop-ups, that a few more seasons of seeing that type of pitch might not.

 

[uncdrew]

Saw one mlb metric weighting pop outs similar to strike outs.
My observation at a certain age maybe 12-15 is fly balls are very advantageous. The outfield becomes pretty good, players are strong enough to hit the ball with lots of hang time, but not good enough for many mis hit home runs.

Yup. For now it works well.

If I think about it, I'm pretty equally bummed if my DD gets shelled regardless of them being fly balls or grounders. I suppose line drives off the fence is the worst.