The myth of the balanced lineup

[Jquick823]

Also I'm interested since softball and baseball lineups are not the same, are we considering FLEX, DP, EH? Are we batting 9,10 or 11???

 

[SoCal_Dad]

Last season in 70 games the 1 hitter had about 22 more PA than my #3 hitter. So 22??? LOL

That's an unusually high pct of last PA's for 1 and 2. I hope most were walk-offs...

 

[BuckeyeGuy]

In a season, how many more times does a 1 or 3 come to the plate than a 5 hitter? I figure someone has to have these stats readily available with the stats that are flying around

In MLB (for AL parks):
Pos PA/game
1 4.83
2 4.72
3 4.61
4 4.49
5 4.39
6 4.26
7 4.14
8 4.02
9 3.9

 

[Momo'sDad]

I hear what you're saying, but I won't do it. Why? The reason is simple: we have no extensive data sets to use to analyze FP in the manner that BB has been analyzed. I don't know that I can or cannot take BB analyses and apply directly to FP. until I do, I go with the data available. I do know that NCAA FP is getting better at recording stats, so hopefully we'll be able to take it and beat it into submission.

That said, I now have a great idea for analyzing BB data - you are an inspiration!

I'm glad that you're going to try a new analysis for baseball, but what I don't understand is why you think the math is the same in the two very different games.

Even if you argue that there's not a significant difference between a 27-out game and a 21-out game - 22% fewer outs to work with in HS/college softball vs MLB (which seems like a big difference to me) - many of the games played on the TB circuit are played with a clock and there are numerous cases where, because of that clock, teams don't get in a full 7 innings.

I could very well be wrong, but I don't see "because that's the way they do it in MLB" as rationale for determining game management strategy in fastpitch.

 

[BuckeyeGuy]

I'm glad that you're going to try a new analysis for baseball, but what I don't understand is why you think the math is the same in the two very different games.

Even if you argue that there's not a significant difference between a 27-out game and a 21-out game - 22% fewer outs to work with in HS/college softball vs MLB (which seems like a big difference to me) - many of the games played on the TB circuit are played with a clock and there are numerous cases where, because of that clock, teams don't get in a full 7 innings.

I could very well be wrong, but I don't see "because that's the way they do it in MLB" as rationale for determining game management strategy in fastpitch.

Not a new BB analysis, but a new analysis using BB data. I am hopeful that I can do something that benefits FP with the data.

The inning difference is huge. Huge. And I missed it, so thanks for that! I'm not interested in using TB data, though. The NCAA data is what I'd want to use eventually, which could then be applied to TB and even rec.

MLB is where the data is. It may not translate directly, but IMO it's better than "Well, that's just how we've always done it," as the rationale for lineup creation.

 

[CoreSoftball20]

In MLB (for AL parks):
Pos PA/game
1 4.83
2 4.72
3 4.61
4 4.49
5 4.39
6 4.26
7 4.14
8 4.02
9 3.9

So 1 bats 782.46, 3 bats 746.82, 4 bats 727.38 and 5 bats 711.18 in a season if you just carry the numbers out in 162 games. Runs in baseball are normally very hard to come by and when you very commonly have less than 10 hits in a game of a 9 inning game (also very little errors), you want your better hitters getting 35-70 more at bats in a season. For a .300 hitter, that's 10 (if he batted 3rd) to 21(1st) hits a year more than you would if he batted 5th.

This is why MLB does lineups like they do in my opinion.

 

[3bmama]

No, I don't think the MLB translates much at all to TB. Fastpitch is not baseball. They are 2 different sports and in my opinion should be treated as such when analyzing them. Strategies for each sport differ, thus you would set your batting order differently. Those 2 innings make a big difference. I think the number 3 hitter on a travel FP team sees a significantly higher amount of at bats due to time limits and few innings played.

 

[colin]

agree with this core. that is why many teams have a normal #4 hitter in the past hitting #3 now

 

[Greenmonsters]

Shhh, don't give away the secrets.

I love playing coaches that have traditional lineups!

And do you agree with the book that the difference between a traditional and optimized line up is 1 win over a 162-game season?

 

[Greenmonsters]

Excellent question. We don't have the ridiculously detailed stats that baseball has. It is possible that the combination of runners/outs and run expectancy is completely different for FP. Until we have those kinds of numbers, I'll stick with what works when the results are pulled from literally tens of thousands of games and millions of simulations in baseball.

And remember: all of this is subject to adjustment based on individual situations. Even Bill James has said that lineup optimization isn't something that should be high on a manager's priority list. If I recall correctly, an optimized lineup is worth approximately 1 or 2 wins over 162 games? Something like that.

The main reason I even brought it up was to frame the context of my answer to CB's question.

I actually have a spreadsheet that I dump my hitter stats into that automatically generates an optimized lineup. As I get more at bats, the lineup shakes out pretty well. But stats aren't people. During an all star tourney last season, we crushed our semi opponent 17-5 and then lost 10-4 in the final with the same lineup. Difference? My high OBP players didn't get OB like they had been (that and 2 errors in one inning).

Do you think the delta between the best and 9th hitter is the same in MLB and FP lineups? I don't. I also think that difference gets magnified in the FP game when facing an elite pitcher.