Size of players relative to performance

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Feb 7, 2013
3,188
48
Malcolm Gladwell did some interesting research on this for his book Outliers and discovered birth dates can have a significant effect. Kids born right after the cutoff date tend to be bigger and more developed than kids born up to 12 months after them.

It's a beautiful example of a self-fulfilling prophecy. In Canada, the eligibility cutoff for age-class hockey programs is Jan. 1. Canada also takes hockey really seriously, so coaches start streaming the best hockey players into elite programs, where they practice more and play more games and get better coaching, as early as 8 or 9. But who tends to be the "best" player at age 8 or 9? The oldest, of course -- the kids born nearest the cut-off date, who can be as much as almost a year older than kids born at the other end of the cut-off date. When you are 8 years old, 10 or 11 extra months of maturity means a lot.

So those kids get special attention. That's why there are more players in the NHL born in January and February and March than any other months. You see the same pattern, to an even more extreme degree, in soccer in Europe and baseball here in the U.S. It's one of those bizarre, little-remarked-upon facts of professional sports. They're biased against kids with the wrong birthday.

And not uncommon for parents to keep their kids back one grade so they are a little older and more mature in school. Happens more with boys than girls I have seen.
 
Dec 5, 2012
4,020
63
Mid West
The comment about being pigeon holed for size is unfortunately a true statement in some cases. A girl here in Indiana that played HS ball for me was an absolute phenomenon. She won the conference batting title three out of four years, was the defensive player of the year twice. Was a four year starter in the lead off spot. Extremely fast. Could bunt, slap, or drive it to the fence with a surgeons precision. She played "A" level travel ball for years and attended every single showcase within a reasonable distance. However, she only stood 5' tall and weighed about 90lbs. Not a single offer came in for her!?!? They all said she didn't have the size to make it on a collegiate level. Sad, but true story. She did however accept a partial scholarship to play soccer at a D2 school!
 
Mar 26, 2013
1,930
0
Like baseball, birth dates have an effect in softball too. At the early ages in rec ball, these are the players that are more likely to be selected as all stars which further advances their development. Someone looked at the 2008 Olympic team and 7 of the 18 were born in Jan/Feb (see Do Birthdays Create Olympians?).

You be the judge; here are the birthdays of the players on the 2008 Olympic softball team:

1. Monica Abbott: 7/28/1985
2. Laura Berg: 1/6/1975
3. Crystl Bustos: 9/8/1977
4. Andrea Duran: 4/12/1984
5. Jennie Finch 9/3/1980
6. Lisa Fernandez: 2/22/1971
7. Tairia Flowers: 1/9/1981
8. Vicky Galindo: 12/22/1983
9. Alicia Hollowell: 2/29/1984
10. Lovieanne Jung: 1/11/1980
11. Kelly Kretschman 8/26/1979
12. Lauren Lappin: 6/26/1984
13. Caitlin Lowe: 2/6/1985
14. Jessica Mendoza: 11/11/1980
15. Stavey Nuveman: 2/26/1978
16. Cat Osterman: 4/16/1978
17. Jenny Topping: 5/30/1980
18. Natasha Watley: 11/27/1981

I think the answer is yes!

If birthdate was not a factor, we would expect that on a team of 18 players 1.5 of them would, on average, be born in any given month. But that is definitely not the case here. Of the 18 players on Team USA 6 were born in January and February—fully 1/3 of the entire team is born in the first two months of the year!

Plus there are only three players, Vicky Galindo, Jessica Mendoza, and Natasha Watley, who were born in November and December. Team USA has half the number of players born in the final two months of the year than would be expected based on averages.

The players born in November and December are also some of the most athletically gifted players in the history of Olympic softball. So for them the effect of being several months younger than their peers may not have been as much of a factor. These players' natural ability showed through despite being born in two unfortunate months.

It's also interesting that two of the "Big Three" in Olympic softball, Jennie Finch and Monica Abbott, have birthdays from later in the year (July and September). Much like the extremely athletic bunch from November and December, Finch and Abbott are very tall individuals and would have been recognized as having athletic promise early in their lives no matter what month they were born in.

But for players not as gifted athletically or at tall as these players, birth month may have been a factor in them being able to reach the highest levels of their sport.
 
Dec 11, 2010
4,728
113
Coach James, that really bothers me. What a shame that is, my gosh why isn't some college coach looking for girls five inches too short who are overlooked by others. Seems l like they could build a super team of these "misfits" like "Moneyball".
 
Nov 18, 2013
2,258
113
Like baseball, birth dates have an effect in softball too. At the early ages in rec ball, these are the players that are more likely to be selected as all stars which further advances their development. Someone looked at the 2008 Olympic team and 7 of the 18 were born in Jan/Feb (see Do Birthdays Create Olympians?).

You be the judge; here are the birthdays of the players on the 2008 Olympic softball team:

1. Monica Abbott: 7/28/1985
2. Laura Berg: 1/6/1975
3. Crystl Bustos: 9/8/1977
4. Andrea Duran: 4/12/1984
5. Jennie Finch 9/3/1980
6. Lisa Fernandez: 2/22/1971
7. Tairia Flowers: 1/9/1981
8. Vicky Galindo: 12/22/1983
9. Alicia Hollowell: 2/29/1984
10. Lovieanne Jung: 1/11/1980
11. Kelly Kretschman 8/26/1979
12. Lauren Lappin: 6/26/1984
13. Caitlin Lowe: 2/6/1985
14. Jessica Mendoza: 11/11/1980
15. Stavey Nuveman: 2/26/1978
16. Cat Osterman: 4/16/1978
17. Jenny Topping: 5/30/1980
18. Natasha Watley: 11/27/1981

I think the answer is yes!

If birthdate was not a factor, we would expect that on a team of 18 players 1.5 of them would, on average, be born in any given month. But that is definitely not the case here. Of the 18 players on Team USA 6 were born in January and February—fully 1/3 of the entire team is born in the first two months of the year!

Plus there are only three players, Vicky Galindo, Jessica Mendoza, and Natasha Watley, who were born in November and December. Team USA has half the number of players born in the final two months of the year than would be expected based on averages.

The players born in November and December are also some of the most athletically gifted players in the history of Olympic softball. So for them the effect of being several months younger than their peers may not have been as much of a factor. These players' natural ability showed through despite being born in two unfortunate months.

It's also interesting that two of the "Big Three" in Olympic softball, Jennie Finch and Monica Abbott, have birthdays from later in the year (July and September). Much like the extremely athletic bunch from November and December, Finch and Abbott are very tall individuals and would have been recognized as having athletic promise early in their lives no matter what month they were born in.

But for players not as gifted athletically or at tall as these players, birth month may have been a factor in them being able to reach the highest levels of their sport.

I've always felt later birthdates help in softball because girls born in Sept to December play up an age level compared to other girls in their grades through their youth.
 
Nov 18, 2013
2,258
113
I think too much is being made of the idea that college coaches won't look at smaller girls. I checked the roster of my DD's future team and the heights range from 5'2" to 5'11" with the average about 5'6". There are coaches that prefer a certain mold, but the beauty of softball is there's a place for anyone no matter how short or tall or big or small.
 
Dec 12, 2012
1,668
0
On the bucket
I think too much is being made of the idea that college coaches won't look at smaller girls. I checked the roster of my DD's future team and the heights range from 5'2" to 5'11" with the average about 5'6". There are coaches that prefer a certain mold, but the beauty of softball is there's a place for anyone no matter how short or tall or big or small.

Can you say what team that is? D1, D2, D3, Juco?.... This will make a difference. IMO, The higher up the food chain the more selective the coaches are.
 

JAD

Feb 20, 2012
8,223
38
Georgia
And not uncommon for parents to keep their kids back one grade so they are a little older and more mature in school. Happens more with boys than girls I have seen.

While almost unheard of a few years ago for girls, Title IX College scholarships have made it much more common these days.
 
Dec 12, 2012
1,668
0
On the bucket
I've always felt later birthdates help in softball because girls born in Sept to December play up an age level compared to other girls in their grades through their youth.

Not sure I follow you here.

While your statement is true when playing league and tournament ball with the alphabet sanctioning bodies, it isn't true when they start playing in High School and College. IMO, this is when it counts.

The later birthdays will play with the majority of the kids one calendar year later than them. i.e. Late 2000 birthdays are in 7th grade currently and will play mostly with 2001 birthdays in HS and College because of grade level.
 

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