Coaching by the numbers...

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Jun 7, 2013
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As I've stated, I will coach more on intuition than statistics. However, if I could have highly reliable stats I might utilize them more. The stat keepers often manipulate the stats to favor their DDs. The best pitcher might not, on paper, look like the best pitcher because she's the one that pitches against the stud teams. And, mainly, in the seasons that we play there just isn't enough ABs or innings to make the results statistically significant! Add this to all the other problems and, ultimately, they are not worth much.
 
Jul 10, 2014
1,276
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C-bus Ohio
What's the old line about using statistics the same way a drunk uses a lamppost. For support not for illumination. Statistics should be something you use to help you see the whole picture but not the only way you decide things.

I'd say properly considered stats both illuminate and support. Digging into the stats may shed some light on why a team makes 3 outs in a row (a pattern that may not be easily discerned when it carries across innings or even across games), and those same stats can support the lineup change (beyond a gut feeling) that fixes the problem.

Many of the stats listed by the OP are for individual consumption only - they should be applied to the batter and inform her of places she can improve, but are essentially useless when looking to manage the lineup. It's very easy to get bogged down wading through too many stats that don't actually help the team. As was stated earlier, wOBA is the Gold Standard for measuring a hitter's effectiveness (ignoring wRC+ for fastpitch). When I started using the Saber lineup guidelines, I used OPS, then moved to GPA (modified OPS), and now wOBA. Honestly, I doubt it makes much difference in game outcome (considering that a Saber lineup is generally only worth 1 or 2 wins over 162 games in MLB), but it saves me time thinking about my lineups and makes it easy to explain to parents why little Suzie is batting 7th.
 
Jul 10, 2014
1,276
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C-bus Ohio
What is wOBA, OPS and GPA?

OPS = OBP+SLG - obsolete, fails to account for the fact that OBP is 80% more important than SLG (and SLG is a terrible stat anyway).
GPA = ((1.8*OBP)+SLG)/4 - accounts for the greater importance of OBP, but misses linear weighting for different events (and SLG is still a terrible stat)
wOBA = ((0.72*NIBB)+(0.75*HBP)+(0.90*1B)+(0.92*ROE)+(1.24*2B)+(1.56*3B)+(1.95*HR))/PA - linear weighted by event.

wOBA should be taken with a grain or 2 of salt, as the weights come from MLB events and not fastpitch events. But I've done the math on Run Expectancy (RE) in MLB vs NCAA D1, and while the total runs are different, the RE differences by base-out state are negligible - probably (I haven't done a true statistical analysis on this). Based on the minimal RE base-out state differences, I'm willing to say with reasonable certainty that while the weights will be different for FP, they likely will all differ in the same direction (greater or lesser) and by close to the same amount. Probably.
 

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