Coaching by the numbers...

[riseball]

Stats useful as they provide endless nerd-speak while waiting for your late Sunday breakfast secure in the knowledge that you were than the team that is still playing.

 

[CoogansBluff]

K's are extremely relevant. No sense in even batting, just take the out and save time. We are not talking about Mike Trout. Pop ups and ground outs are not the same as k's you guys are confused. If you flyout but move the runner on base up, then it is not just like a K, same with putting the ball on the ground. Clutch is what my dd is. She is a great hitter, avg. about mid to high 400s and only struck out 6 times in the last 2 years at 16u TB, has tied up or won so many games. She is clutch and is not a myth, she just knows what her job is to do.

Are you saying that your daughter has tied up or won more games than the typical mid- to high-400 hitter?

I would expect a .450 hitter to perform well in important situations.

But do you have statistical evidence that your DD is better than other .450 hitters in the clutch? That's what I believe is largely a myth. Not saying it doesn't exist, but when people have researched it in MLB, they've found little to support the idea.

Regarding K's, if one girl strikes out 5 times in 100 AB, and another strikes out 20 times in 100 AB, I would guess that the 5-SO girl is the better hitter if that's all I had to go on.

But someone posted in this thread that SO was one of the 3 top stats that he valued. Really? It ranks further down the line for me. If you bat .400, you are productive. If you get on base .500, you are productive. If your slugging is .600, you are productive. If you put the ball in play 1.000, I need more information. If you are 7th on your team in strikeouts, I need more information. SO = overrated.

 

[nanotech14]

Are you saying that your daughter has tied up or won more games than the typical mid- to high-400 hitter?

I would expect a .450 hitter to perform well in important situations.

But do you have statistical evidence that your DD is better than other .450 hitters in the clutch? That's what I believe is largely a myth. Not saying it doesn't exist, but when people have researched it in MLB, they've found little to support the idea.

Regarding K's, if one girl strikes out 5 times in 100 AB, and another strikes out 20 times in 100 AB, I would guess that the 5-SO girl is the better hitter if that's all I had to go on.

But someone posted in this thread that SO was one of the 3 top stats that he valued. Really? It ranks further down the line for me. If you bat .400, you are productive. If you get on base .500, you are productive. If your slugging is .600, you are productive. If you put the ball in play 1.000, I need more information. If you are 7th on your team in strikeouts, I need more information. SO = overrated.

With out a doubt!!!!!! your perception of SO being overrated, means to me that your team will fail more then teams that look at lowering SO. If the SO isn't important then send your dd up to bat and tell her to just swing at the first 3 pitches and miss on purpose. See how long that will keep her in the line up, the only way it doesn't is if your a daddyball coach. And also again this isn't the MLB.

 

[Rocketech1]

Strikeouts are important because they are one of the few batting stats that are completely objective when evaluating the effectiveness of batters. Batting average, slugging %, RBI etc are subjective stats because someone needs to determine whether a play is a base hit or error. For example, one 12u rec season we had 6 teams using gamechanger and 3 teams by the end of the season had zero ROE! And coaches would brag about how great their teams batting averages were.

The bottomline is look at all the stats with an open mind and do the eye test.

 

[CoachKevin]

Well I am one of the "stats" guys. Our HC is a "gut" guy 18U. We have a pitcher, who the HC believes is the #1, I don't. She pitched 80.2 innings, gave up 114 hits, with 53 BB, 33 K's

And he wonders why she can't get out of innings without the other team scoring. I finally had to show him why, using stats. About mid-way through the season he started using her less.

 

[JAD]

Stats do not always tell the whole story, especially in shortened seasons where there is not enough data collected. A batter who is robbed of a home run by a great play in the OF is recorded as a fly ball out, while a swinging "excuse me" bunt that catches the infield off guard is a hit. When the game is on the line in the bottom of the 7th inning which batter do you want at the plate?

 

[RichK]

Well I am one of the "stats" guys. Our HC is a "gut" guy 18U. We have a pitcher, who the HC believes is the #1, I don't. She pitched 80.2 innings, gave up 114 hits, with 53 BB, 33 K's

And he wonders why she can't get out of innings without the other team scoring. I finally had to show him why, using stats. About mid-way through the season he started using her less.

What kind of gut does really he have if he can't "feel" an average of two runners on base per inning?

 

[RichK]

The other thing I'll say is that when you are coaching "developing" players -- which is really as much the case at 18U as it is at 10U -- stats only tell part of the story, where they've been...in most cases you're also trying to understand where they need to be going....

In the major leagues, or college, it's more about straight performance than development. No one wants to lose but different goals require different tools...

 

[BuckeyeGuy]

Stats do not always tell the whole story, especially in shortened seasons where there is not enough data collected.

This ^^^^

And you all know I'm a huge stats guy. Stats are a tool, and way too many coaches don't know how to use the tool (think: using a multi-meter when the job calls for a hammer). In general, the sample size from one season is too small to draw firm conclusions. Stats are nothing more than averages that inform us how a player or team should perform over time. They do nothing for a specific situation other than give you a probability. If you recall the 2002 Oakland A's, first year of "Moneyball" - from last to first in the regular season, then losing to the Twins in the ALDS: the perfect example of how averages work over time, but can't be counted on for a single series or single game.

I use GPA (modified OPS), OBP, and SLG to drive my lineups which vary wildly at the beginning of the season but settle down nicely around mid-season. My goal is to put runners on ahead of extra-base hitters, and to keep there from being 3 outs in a row.

 

[Little Angels Softball]

My goal is to put runners on ahead of extra-base hitters, and to keep there from being 3 outs in a row.

My goal, as well.

Baseball stats are great and I like them. I coach a softball team, however.

Sure, Mike Trout strikes out a lot and that is OK since he is also putting the ball over the fence about 45 times a season. No 10-14 YO girl on this planet is going to hit it out of the park 45 times a season (OK, around 35 times given our somewhat shorter schedule). In fact, if a girl hits it out 10 times during a 110-game season she is a monster. So, I need about 1/3 the strikeouts to go along with those 1/3 homeruns, and that is for the very best and most powerful hitter you can find.

Baseball also has 90' bases. I am only concerned with moving girls 60' at a time. Getting a girl to 3B is everything in my world, as when we play our rivals the game is likely to be very close, low-scoring and well-played defensively. Stolen bases definitely matter. Most good teams we play are very hard to steal a base on and a girl who can do it well (and get on base enough to make it worthwhile) is a huge thing for me. Fast girls with good instincts score runs and when you've played 30 one-run games in a year, that matters a ton.

We are not like baseball, where a single to the outfield routinely scores a runner from 2B. In my game, that "single" may turn into an out at 1B if it is hit to RF, and a runner at 2B when said "single" was hit is most definitely NOT going to score on my team, even if we get the out at 1B before turning our attention to her. That does not happen in the other game.

Also, because we play many close, low-scoring games, we find ourselves in tiebreaker situations every once in awhile. The strikeout is the single biggest cause of wins/losses in that scenario and it will kill your team if it happens to you on offense.

Bottom line for me is that I need to get girls on base who can get to 3B without their team having to sacrifice two outs to get them there. Then, I need girls who don't strike out to get them home, whether that is by hitting a ground ball to 2B, a base hit, a fly ball or even a foul ball that the 1B catches with her back to home plate. It can even be as easy as a the pitcher throwing a drop ball in the dirt because she is trying to get a girl who doesn't strike out very much to do just that.

Baseball is a very different game and those folks aren't thinking the way I am when it comes to scoring runs. So, I don't use the stats baseball people do and apply them to softball. I use what works for me and my game.