I have play-by-play data from the WCWS since 1997, and I've found this statistic to be fascinating.
Only one player has been thrown out trying to steal second with a runner at third in the last 25 years at the WCWS. Those attempting to steal 2nd are successful 93 of 94 times with a runner at 3rd. That's compared to about 71% success rate when no runner at 3rd. I don’t know how often catchers have thrown down with runners 1st/3rd because WCWS scorers apparently never rule for defensive indifference. Everything is either SB or CS.
Further, on these 94 attempted steals, 9 runs have scored from 3rd because of the throw down, either because of catcher error or a double steal.
In fairness, there have been 2 cases of the defense getting the runner on 3rd out.
So in 96 cases, there have been 3 good outcomes for the defense:
Is the best college defenses can't do better than this, what is good reason ever to make a legit shot at getting the runner at second? Maybe what we thought was smart in 10U rec ball applies at every level. Just hold the ball.
btw, looks like the play above w/ Nickles (aka Bubba) was a double play. Maybe somebody remembers that one. I don't, but it occurred in 2017, UCLA vs. Texas A&M. I assume that since the lead runner was out at home, the trailing runner (Nickles) didn't get credit for a SB herself, and then she was doubled up after reaching second safely. Must've been a heckuva play ... the old 2-6-2-5-4 DP.
Only one player has been thrown out trying to steal second with a runner at third in the last 25 years at the WCWS. Those attempting to steal 2nd are successful 93 of 94 times with a runner at 3rd. That's compared to about 71% success rate when no runner at 3rd. I don’t know how often catchers have thrown down with runners 1st/3rd because WCWS scorers apparently never rule for defensive indifference. Everything is either SB or CS.
Further, on these 94 attempted steals, 9 runs have scored from 3rd because of the throw down, either because of catcher error or a double steal.
In fairness, there have been 2 cases of the defense getting the runner on 3rd out.
So in 96 cases, there have been 3 good outcomes for the defense:
GIORDANO out at home c to ss to 1b to c, caught stealing |
Nickles advanced to second, out on the play; Maurice out at home c to ss to c to 3b to 2b, caught stealing |
Wigness, B out at second c to ss, caught stealing |
Is the best college defenses can't do better than this, what is good reason ever to make a legit shot at getting the runner at second? Maybe what we thought was smart in 10U rec ball applies at every level. Just hold the ball.
btw, looks like the play above w/ Nickles (aka Bubba) was a double play. Maybe somebody remembers that one. I don't, but it occurred in 2017, UCLA vs. Texas A&M. I assume that since the lead runner was out at home, the trailing runner (Nickles) didn't get credit for a SB herself, and then she was doubled up after reaching second safely. Must've been a heckuva play ... the old 2-6-2-5-4 DP.