You Have Stats – Use Them!

[Ken Krause]

The movie and especially the book Moneyball details how the Oakland Athletics (A’s) helped pioneer the use of statistical data in making player decisions, from which players to acquire to who to play in the field on a daily basis. Their reason for doing it was primarily financial, i.e., they didn’t have the same kind […]

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[The Man In Blue]

@Ken Krause , studies show that teams who collect data do better than teams that don't collect data. NOTHING says anything about actually using the data . . .

Sorry, flashback to a really bad series of events at my old school. Long story short, admin thought they were outsmarting our student laptop warranty program when they were really shooting us all in the foot. They decided to hand out old, out of warranty computers "because the students would just tear them up anyway." Meanwhile the new, in-warranty computers sat until they were no longer warranted . . . and now we had two piles of garbage computers they were going to have to pay to repair.

I made a lot of people mad and started a mini-rebellion when, out of frustration, I made the comment "Studies show schools with a 1-to-1 laptop-to-student ratio perform better. We have that, are we performing better? You see, nothing said the laptops had to actually work, so here we are, handing out paper weights and expecting students to improve test scores, grades, attendance, and attitude. How is this working out for us?"


YES, use your data!

 

[CoachJD]

1) Gotta have good data (which means coaches need to stop handing GC duties to some random parent who doesn't understand basic scoring rules)
2) Gotta have someone who knows how to use the data

From what I've seen in the various groups I'm in, very few teams satisfy both those requirements. Most don't satisfy either.

Not a great top 7 players in the post, but I'd go G, C, E, D, A, F, B. I'm also going to try to find some better players since I really only have 4 useful hitters unless this is a particular terrible run environment.

G has the second highest OBP in the group but has little power. Get her at the top where she can get on base. C is your best overall hitter, but she's not really a big power threat (ISO of .076). Bat her second. E goes 3rd simply because she's one of the top 4 hitters on this squad. D goes 4th. Second best hitter + good power (ISO of .143). A is fifth because the pickin's are slim, but she's the best of the rest. My 6-7 is terrible, which makes me wonder just how abysmal 8 and 9 must be. 6 and 7 are not good enough to get regular at bats.

 

[Westwind]

Parents decided to buy old, out of warranty Bats "because the players would just tear them up anyway." Meanwhile the new, in-warranty Bats sat until they were no longer warranted . . . and now we had two piles of garbage Bats they were going to have to pay to replace.

MIB! I love this quote and it is so representative of what people do. Its also representative of what bosses, administrators and agencies do constantly.

I changed your quote to suit my never ending “use fp bats like you stole them” campaign!

Parent: “We kept breaking new bats in practice so we made the new one her game bat.”

WW: “What does she swing in practice?”

Parent: “A Ghost that I only paid $230 for on Facebook.”

WW: “Does she break more bats in practice or games?”

Parent: “Practice. It’s those damn machine balls. They void the warranty you know. I’m looking for another bat under $250 because she just broke another one in practice. Never breaks them in games”

WW: “You think maybe it’s because she hits 3-400 balls a week in practice and 10-15 balls a weekend in games? Maybe you should have her hit the OLD bat in games and the NEW bat in practice?”

Parent: “But I don’t want her to break her game bat.”

WW: “So. How ‘bout those Bears.”

 

[CoachJD]

MIB! I love this quote and it is so representative of what people do. Its also representative of what bosses, administrators and agencies do constantly.

I changed your quote to suit my never ending “use fp bats like you stole them” campaign!

Parent: “We kept breaking new bats in practice so we made the new one her game bat.”

WW: “What does she swing in practice?”

Parent: “A Ghost that I only paid $230 for on Facebook.”

WW: “Does she break more bats in practice or games?”

Parent: “Practice. It’s those damn machine balls. They void the warranty you know. I’m looking for another bat under $250 because she just broke another one in practice. Never breaks them in games”

WW: “You think maybe it’s because she hits 3-400 balls a week in practice and 10-15 balls a weekend in games? Maybe you should have her hit the OLD bat in games and the NEW bat in practice?”

Parent: “But I don’t want her to break her game bat.”

WW: “So. How ‘bout those Bears.”

There's no way this conversation is worse than talking to a stranger about the Bears.

 

[4Martini]

I think there are a few more things you can look at too in the bigger picture in addition to the base data (like speed and stealing ability and maybe throw in ROE somehow). Last weekend my kid scored 8 runs in 7 games (tied for most runs) on a .077 batting average including 3 of 12 in the championship game. I think it was 4 walks, 2 hit by pitch, 3 ROE and 1 hit. As lead off sometimes the pitchers are a little wild. But watch out if she gets on base - especially with no one in front of her.

It was a very weird weekend- everyone was laughing because she kept scoring but her batting average was zero until the final game.

We honestly thought she would be pulled from lead off- but her coach left her there this weekend. I think just for general scrapiness. She’s not afraid to make stuff happen even if it’s not pretty. (But I’m sure some other parent has pointed out her stats to him).

 

[warbird]

FYI...When asked to produce a moneyball lineup, here is how chatGPT felt about these players:

• C (.462 BA, .562 OBP, .538 SLG, 1.101 OPS) - Best hitter, high OBP and SLG, perfect for leading off.
• G (.250 BA, .429 OBP, .312 SLG, .741 OPS) - High OBP, can get on base for the power hitters.
• D (.286 BA, .400 OBP, .429 SLG, .829 OPS) - Good balance of OBP and SLG, ideal for driving in runs.
• E (.278 BA, .381 OBP, .333 SLG, .714 OPS) - Solid OBP, can drive in runs and keep the inning going.
• A (.222 BA, .333 OBP, .278 SLG, .611 OPS) - Decent OBP, can get on base for the lower part of the lineup.
• F (.200 BA, .294 OBP, .200 SLG, .494 OPS) - Lower OBP and SLG, but better than player B.
• B (.167 BA, .250 OBP, .167 SLG, .417 OPS) - Lowest stats, placed lower in the lineup.

 

[canyonjoe]

In the long run stats don't lie but the sample size does matter. If you look at these players they put in the example and it's for the 1st 8 games of a season it's hard to make all your assumptions based on that. Player X might have just come back from injury or just finished another sport but has hit 450 the last 3 year for you. I remember when Aaron Judge was hitting 200 in April Yankee fans wanted to platoon him.

 

[CoachCeetar]

Yeah, sample size is super important, there's just so much "well, it fell between the outfielders instead of AT them" luck. But you can make yourself silly trying to dig into deeper stats (if you have them)

but for lineup construction, really doesn't matter that much. You should know, in a general sense, who the players who get on base the most are. Keep them near the top. The #2 hitter is going to get a certain amount more AB than the 6th place hitter, so you want those extra AB to go to the better hitter. That's really it.


With stats, you need to know what you're looking for too. There's a lot of false flag stuff, like maybe you notice a runner goes first to third a lot, scores from second a lot, etc. First look might tell you "she's fast!" but second look might tell you "oh, the two batters behind them lead the league in doubles..maybe she's actually _slow_"

 

[canyonjoe]

Yeah, sample size is super important, there's just so much "well, it fell between the outfielders instead of AT them" luck. But you can make yourself silly trying to dig into deeper stats (if you have them)

but for lineup construction, really doesn't matter that much. You should know, in a general sense, who the players who get on base the most are. Keep them near the top. The #2 hitter is going to get a certain amount more AB than the 6th place hitter, so you want those extra AB to go to the better hitter. That's really it.


With stats, you need to know what you're looking for too. There's a lot of false flag stuff, like maybe you notice a runner goes first to third a lot, scores from second a lot, etc. First look might tell you "she's fast!" but second look might tell you "oh, the two batters behind them lead the league in doubles..maybe she's actually _slow_"

One thing where stats really help is there are some kids who aren't really flashy but get on a lot and others that will hit a couple of memorable shots in a weekend. When you look at them at the end the one with the big hits was 4-20 and the other kids was 7-12 with 6 walks