Stealing bases in college softball

[CoogansBluff]

Was noticing today that Georgia has stolen 101 bases, been caught only 4 times.

The SEC as a whole is 590-of-681 in steals. A fair amount of that is being perpetrated on weak teams that can't defend it well, but SEC catchers are throwing out only about 24 percent of those stealing on them. They're probably getting less than 20 percent in SEC play.

So, what's the meaning of all this?

You can't hold runners on base like you do in baseball, so it's pretty simple. An individual runner's time from 1st to 2nd should be fairly predictable and consistent. A catcher's pop time is similar.

Is it straight math? If you can attain a certain speed (which includes both foot speed but also the ability to time your lead), then they are basically not going to get you out?

But if you cannot do it in a certain time, you should not attempt it?

And what is the magic number? Obviously different in SEC than in 12U, but I wonder if anyone has made a science of it.

 

[PA SB Dad]

In the SEC, base-stealers have been leaving early, which helps.

I bet this would be a good topic for the guy who runs Fastpitch Analytics: About the Author

 

[CoogansBluff]

In the SEC, base-stealers have been leaving early, which helps.

I heard that.

 

[redhotcoach]

Pop time dosen't put into account that a tag needs to be made. The girls are way fast, and no one gets called for cheating the release.

 

[Greenmonsters]

One thing about pop times, there's no "accuracy" component. A throw that beats the runner has to be in the right location and/or the catch/tag have to be applied effectively. Just playing around with what I've seen - the time from catch to tag can be 0.5+ seconds. So if we add things up, its about 0.5 seconds from pitch release to the catcher, plus a great pop time of 1.7 seconds, plus 0.5 second from IF catch to tag, that totals 2.7 seconds, which may not be good enough in many cases. And that 1.7 may be slowed depending on actual v. expected pitch location.

Catcher throwing accuracy and better infielder positioning are things that need to be worked on IMO. I see a lot of MIF (more SS than 2B) are taking the ball in front of the bag and sweeping back toward the bag (which takes significantly longer than "waiting" and taking the ball at the bag and bringing it straight down) to try to tag a runner who is backdooring the bag and results in loss of possible outs.

 

[Sparky Guy]

The runner has the advantage just in simple math. Let's say we use 2.9 for a 60' time, many are faster. Now the runner gets a running head start as the leave the base. If they are leaving at the release they already have 1 step start, with a good start on getting their static inertia overcome. The net effect is the 60' distance has been essentially shortened by 5' coupled with a running start. My guess it this drops the time down to the 2.5 - 2.7 range. If they are leaving early and getting away with it the time is even shorter.

A pitcher throwing 65 mph, it will take the ball .45 seconds to get to the catcher. Not just to home. The distance gained by the leap is mostly lost when it comes to the catcher being setup behind the plate.

A good pop time for a catcher is in the 1.75 area. IF they get a good pitch to handle and execute perfectly.

The time that everyone forgets to factor in is the SS. It takes time from the instant the SS catches the ball, locates the runner and applies the tag. If the throw is dead-on perfect maybe .3 seconds. If the throw is on the wrong side of the base or high it's going to take longer.

So it takes the defense roughly 2.5 seconds to complete a putout attempt at 2nd with a perfect play. The runners are getting there in 2.5 - 2.7 on average. VERY little margin for error. Advantage base stealer.

This is in no way scientific at all. Just my own personal observations.

 

[Ken Krause]

Jay Miller said his mantra on base stealing was always "You're either safe at second or out at first." Sounds like a lot of the SEC agrees with that philosophy. Wonder what will happen when it's time for the WCWS and more of the world is watching?

 

[JFiorianti]

Like many sports is it getting to the point that the players are getting too good for the sport and it might be time to make changes? When ever I watch high level college SB I too have noticed how fast these girls get down the line. Sounds crazy but is it time to move back the bases a bit?

 

[Jquick823]

I'll take 24% throw out rate vs arguably the best players in the sport. Give MLB baserunners a running head start and no one throws them out not even Yogi or Bench.

 

[dustydog]

Have been watching a fair amount of college games on the computer this year. When they use centerfield camera with runner on 2b its pretty obvious runners are getting an early start for the most part! If they are getting that jump at 2nd pretty sure its happening at first also! Ig they have any speed at all its hard to get thrown out then!