Metrics of a Stolen Base...

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Apr 14, 2022
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View attachment 27074


For D3 softball, RE is about 1/2 run better with girl on 3rd with no outs vs girl on 2b with no outs. Of course the RE of nobody on with 1 out is 1.3 runs less than girl on second with no outs….
Looking at the charts I do not know why making outs at home with less than 2 outs is not a rule as well.
Another thing, no-one thinks of when a runner is thrown out you are also giving up an at bat at the end of the game. That is an additional .117-.998 run loss. My guess with a .370 on base% .3-.4.
So a runner making the first out at home is probable costing close to 2 runs.
 
May 27, 2022
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The recent catcher pop times thread got me thinking. As an engineer, I'm always prone to deep diving into the metrics, so I've put together a video of a successful stolen base on my DD. There's been more than a few stolen bases on DD, but this is an example of a VERY fast and on time baserunner, basically she smoked DD! But all's well that ends well as DD threw her out on the next play trying to steal 3B.. HA!

This was taken in FL this fall, 18u TBolts Rocky, their premiere team. This was the leadoff baserunner who I believe is committed to Duke as a slapper, very fast and a tremendous baserunner.

Here's the timeline:
1- Runner gets an amazing jump, imperceptibly early, but definitely early!
2- The pitch.. Absolutely the worst case scenario for the catcher. Off speed change up and low and in pitch location on a righty which naturally gives the longest distance for the transfer and release time.
3- 0.747sec has elapsed between when runner has left and start of the POP time for the catcher, that is HUGE.
4- Baserunner time from leaving 1B and sliding safely into 2B is 2.565sec which is super super fast.
5- In this instance, a pop time of less than 1.840secs and perfect location gets this runner thrown out.
6- DD throws a 1.977 pop. It's amazing how being .133secs behind is an ETERNITY on this play.

Areas to improve.
1- To me, the pitch location necessitates throwing from the knees.
2- Throw location needs to be at or near the dirt.
3- Throw velocity is not good enough, DD needs to give it the beans and go for broke on this play.



Great Video!!!
Does your DD throw from her knees? Mine have learned to throw from knees on low pitch and from feet on higher pitches. Might save a couple tenths.
 
May 7, 2015
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Maybe there wasn't a lot of history but 0-1 is a good time to pitch out. I saw pitch as off and in.
It looked like the pitch call was off speed change up outside, because the catcher setup outside during the delivery. The pitch location was inside strike, so most likely the pitcher missed her spot and the catcher had to receive the ball on the left side of her body, hence the long time in transition.
 
May 7, 2015
842
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SoCal
Top NFL 20 yard splits 2.5 sec. would bet sub 2.6= leaving early.
The
Top NFL 20 yard splits 2.5 sec. would bet sub 2.6= leaving early.
The timer function on the video starts when the runner left first base, see a screen shot.
1671476937473.png

Also, the timer is stopped when she reached 2nd base. The 2.565 is the actual time of the runner, not the time of the ball flight. She did leave *slightly* early, but it would never get called. Lastly, NFL times are fully grown large people.. This is, as I remember, a 5'5" or so featherweight, I'm assuming she can accelerate faster than larger people.

1671477008668.png
 
May 7, 2015
842
93
SoCal
Great Video!!!
Does your DD throw from her knees? Mine have learned to throw from knees on low pitch and from feet on higher pitches. Might save a couple tenths.
Yes, she can throw from her knees but usually defaults to her feet. We're working on that more now, especially with pitches off to her left side. IMO, she should have centered up the pitch by moving left during the flight of the ball and thrown from her knees.

In all likelihood, no matter what this runner is stealing that base. Leaving with perfect timing, running the bases in 2.565sec, and a changeup low and inside is just too much to overcome.
 
May 27, 2022
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Yes, she can throw from her knees but usually defaults to her feet. We're working on that more now, especially with pitches off to her left side. IMO, she should have centered up the pitch by moving left during the flight of the ball and thrown from her knees.

In all likelihood, no matter what this runner is stealing that base. Leaving with perfect timing, running the bases in 2.565sec, and a changeup low and inside is just too much to overcome.

Keep working on it. I am betting she can get her pop time to < 1.8 even as low as 1.7. If/when she gets there, then it is only a question of consistency (which is its own stiff challenge). But, I like what I saw in the video and I bet she can get there!
 
Aug 20, 2017
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Why are we stealing 3B with no outs? Meh.
I have taught my DD to read change ups when at 2B. Pitchers with slow change ups are easy to steal 3B on. If you read it don’t hesitate, if you hesitate don’t go. Catchers can have issues trying to catch a changeup and throw to 3B. They usually start too early and reach for the ball causing transfer issues. DD has been pretty successful with it
 
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