Fake Bunts - Giving up Strikes

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Jun 6, 2016
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Why, because so much of this game is mental and with 2 strikes we chase stuff while trying to "defend the plate".

And this comes from coaches and parents acting as if a strike out is the end of the world. Treat a strike out like any other out, and you're developing hitters who will hit more confidently with two strikes. They'll be less likely to chase or "expand their zone" beyond what they're capable of hitting. They'll strike out a little more, but they're also going to make a lot better contact with two strikes.

This will serve them well when they advance past the level where "just put the ball in play" means a team full of bad defenders throws the ball around and you reach on a series of errors.
 
Jan 1, 2022
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And this comes from coaches and parents acting as if a strike out is the end of the world. Treat a strike out like any other out, and you're developing hitters who will hit more confidently with two strikes. They'll be less likely to chase or "expand their zone" beyond what they're capable of hitting. They'll strike out a little more, but they're also going to make a lot better contact with two strikes.

This will serve them well when they advance past the level where "just put the ball in play" means a team full of bad defenders throws the ball around and you reach on a series of errors.

I agree with you to some extent. When we are talking about daddy ball and teams coached by lower tiered or unexperienced coaches. However we have seen a major shift at the upper tiers (Elite TB, NCAA, MLB, etc) and across all forms of batted (baseball, W Fastpitch, M Fastpitch) sport in the last 10 years where the emphasis has moved away from BA and SO totals and moved towards HHB%, QAB% and OPS.

Even with that shift and a focus on being aggressive at the plate, regardless of the count, do you know what has happened?

More balls have been hit hard! And more strikeouts have happened. Around 10% more strikeouts per season at the MLB level across the last decade.

What hasn't changed? The effect the the pitch count has on BA and OPS. Why? Because even without poor coaching and parental pressure, when we are behind in a count we lose a lot of strategic advantages. In an 2-0 or 3-0 count I can set on fastball (or that pitchers dominate pitch) outside to middle of the plate for up to 3 pitches and either get walked or (statistically speaking) get the pitch I am looking for. With each strike that advantage shrinks and I have to then react to any pitch in the zone which is a much harder thing to do.

MLB teams know this, data has changed a lot about how we play the game today at the upper levels. For example, data driven teams (and those are usually the best performing teams in the MLB these days) have seen that 2 strike OPS is the lowest it's been since we started recording the stat. Pitchers are throwing harder than ever before and more than 58 percent of first pitches thrown in 22 across the MLB were in the strike zone. So why in the world would we want to take a less than 50 percent chance on a take?

Of course Rec and lower level TB isn't gonna have the same stats, but to the point of my post from before. Let's do everything we can as coaches to give our hitters the best chance for being successful.

As a side note, across 42 games this year I have yet to meet another coach that charts the opposing pitchers pitches.

While the focus on this thread is hitting, We use the same data for pitching now. There is a lot of focus on throwing two of the first three pitches for strikes. If you throw a first pitch strike, you have an 80% chance of throwing two of the first three pitches for strikes & if you throw a first pitch ball, your percentages fall to 30%. Once you throw a first pitch strike, your slash line falls to .239/.283/.372. The expected runs scored after a first pitch ball jumps to .069 runs vs .029 runs if you throw a first pitch strike.
 

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Dec 11, 2010
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There is a lot of focus on throwing two of the first three pitches for strikes. If you throw a first pitch strike, you have an 80% chance of throwing two of the first three pitches for strikes & if you throw a first pitch ball, your percentages fall to 30%. Once you throw a first pitch strike, your slash line falls to .239/.283/.372. The expected runs scored after a first pitch ball jumps to .069 runs vs .029 runs if you throw a first pitch strike.
I’m not a baseball spectator at all. Is this being discussed during games? DD’s college softball coach gets her pitchers in full counts constantly. I know it drives me nuts but statistically I don’t know why.
 
Jan 1, 2022
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I’m not a baseball spectator at all. Is this being discussed during games? DD’s college softball coach gets her pitchers in full counts constantly. I know it drives me nuts but statistically I don’t know why.
I can't speak to why your DD's coach is doing that or the level of pitchers she has to work with.

What I can share is that I got to spend some time at the WCWS talking to several of the coaches who were already out of the tourney about pitch selection and pitching strategy and every single one of them knew each of their pitchers stats inside and out and knew their scouting reports cold. These of course are P5 coaches who are literally the best in the game...with large staff to help with all the numbers and scouting reports. A D3 coach with 1 (or no) paid assistance isn't going to have the same access to individualized data, but the overall trends and strategies should be something we expect them to have a firm grasp on.

At a somewhat recent NFCA event I asked 10 different D1 coaches what the biggest change in the game had been since they started coaching. They ranged from 7-30 years in D1 and all but one said "Data"...the other said social media :D
 
Dec 11, 2010
4,713
113
These of course are P5 coaches who are literally the best in the game...
You of course may have been talking to DD’s coach. Literally…

What coaches say in the hospitality room of NFCA and what coaches actually do are often two different things.

I appreciate the data you posted though.
 
Jan 1, 2022
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You of course may have been talking to DD’s coach. Literally…

What coaches say in the hospitality room of NFCA and what coaches actually do are often two different things.

I appreciate the data you posted though.

Agree 100 percent. Lots of coaches have all the knowledge and tools at their disposal and will still default to making gut decisions under pressure. The fun thing about that is we can track their performance through stats too .

I very well may have talked to her coach, you will have to msg me to gossip sometime lol


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