AN OUT IS AN OUT???

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Nov 4, 2015
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I have listened to numbers guys in baseball for several years and I guess some of it goes back to Money Ball, but I have a problem with the "out is an out" philosophy in baseball and softball. Was listening to a former college softball coach on a podcast say that you don't shorten up with 2 strikes to "put the ball in play". His comment was a weak fly ball to left is an out just like a strikeout. I think that is a poor analogy. Those outs may be the same, but with a runner on second and no outs, 2 ground balls to the second baseman is 2 outs, but a run has scored. That is vastly different from 2 strikeouts. Why is it that everyone is afraid of "productive" outs just so they can try for the homerun? I'm not a longstanding or even a good coach, but I have tried to get my girls to understand that they are free to take BIG Hacks on the first 2 strikes (those are her strikes), but that 3rd strike is the TEAM's. I don't hate sabermetrics, but I just don't know how coaches don't promote the productive out. Sorry for the rant, but do want to know what the folks on here think.
 

Ken Krause

Administrator
Admin
May 7, 2008
3,911
113
Mundelein, IL
I get what you're saying, but I think at least part of it depends on the ability of the defensive team.

Take your example of a runner on second with no outs (you didn't specify but I assume). According to this chart, based on outcomes from 2010 to 2015, the offense has a .614 chance of scoring a run. After the first ground ball, assuming the runner moves up, the chances have now increased slightly to .660. So far so good - better than a strikeout.

Now, if on the next ground ball the defense again immediately throws to first the run scores. But if they are successful in holding the runner and then get the out, you have a runner on third with two outs. Your chances of scoring that runner have now dropped to .257. Had that first out been a hit, all else equal you would now have a runner on third with one out, which is back to .660 with two shots at scoring her. So by just "putting it in play" you either didn't gain much or you missed an opportunity. Going for the hit and succeeding once would have worked better than going for putting it in play and ending up with two weak outs.

If your runner on third took off for home on one of the ground balls, she might have scored. Or she might have been thrown out. Again, depends on the quality of your opponent and their ability to make a play. If she gets thrown out and you now have a runner on first with two outs, statistically you have a .067 chance of scoring.

So that's the why behind it. Outs are the currency of the game. You only get 21 - often fewer if you're on a team limit. You want to spend them wisely.

But again, it's not just about the stats. The better the quality of play, the more the stats hold. The lesser the quality of play, the better chance going outside the stats will work.
 
Mar 28, 2014
1,081
113
One fallacy of your analogy is you are automatically assuming 2 outs for the free swingers and assuming successful contact for the ones that shorten up. Real world numbers say you can't do that.

I tend to agree with whoever said that. My DD bats really well, maybe even better, with 2 strikes on her and doesn't choke up and try to just "Put the ball in play". She treats it like she has no strikes on her. Same swing. Big hack. Maybe because she has had 2 good looks already? I don't know the why but I do know that based on results, I will never tell her to choke up and just put it in play.
 
Nov 4, 2015
320
43
With 2 responses, I can sort of see why this is such a tough sell either way. Everyone, including myself, will tend to make assumptions that favor their argument. Was arbitrarily using two ground balls to second. Sometimes instead of a hit, it's a deep fly ball with the runner at third. Again, this is better than a strikeout.


"Going for the hit and succeeding once would have worked better than going for putting it in play and ending up with two weak outs."

I"m saying the batter still goes for the hit. I'm even good with them taking big cuts. Not telling them to "put it in play" until they have 2 strikes. I'll take anything in play over the strikeout.

Texasheat--My fallacy of assuming the free swingers make outs is the same basic fallacy of assuming they wont make outs and the other two wont put the ball in play. To make the arguments, we all have to bring up situations and make a few assumptions or this is no fun! We are just using opposing analogies to make our argument.

"I will never tell her to choke up and just put it in play. " Didn't say to choke up and put it in play. I don't like that either. I'm saying to take a different approach. Be aggressive by not leaving that 3rd strike up to the umpire. Shorten up a little and let the ball travel more. If you don't get a hit, up your chances for a productive out.


I guess I'm more looking at how there was a Major leaguer that hit his 100th homerun the other day and only has 70 singles while batting .200 and striking out 1/2 the time. Don't want to see softball go that route.

Could be that the philosophy needs to be adapted depending on the pitcher. If you're up against Barnhill, I say you benefit by putting more balls in play with 2 strikes. Against someone that pitches to contact, free swinging may be the better approach.
 

marriard

Not lost - just no idea where I am
Oct 2, 2011
4,312
113
Florida
DD figures if she gets at least 3 swings at 3 balls in the strike zone during a bat she is going to make solid contact at least once or twice. She is not going to shorten up for anyone. As far as she is concerned that is robbing her swing off what it is capable of. Fielders are too good for her to be just putting the ball in play or not hitting it as hard and giving fielders an easier time. She is going to whack it and a strike out is sometimes a thing that happens. Hard mishits on hard swings are just as likely to be singles, bloopers or even just missed doubles as some attempted poke through good fielders. And mishit pop ups are no different than easy ground outs. You are still out.

Free passes (walks, steals, passed balls) and extra base hits score runs.

Sure there is some situational hitting where you need something specific - and yeah, if something specific has to be done she will do everything she can do to get it done.. Bunt, sac fly, ground ball to the right. Guess when most of these situations occur - right after free passes or extra base hits

It is tough to string hits together. Going base to base is a brutal way to grind runs out and statistically against quality opponents is not as good. I need 4 good things to happen on base to base to score versus 2 - and since I only get 3 outs I am going to go for the way that means I only need 2.
 
Last edited:
Jan 5, 2018
385
63
PNW
DD figures if she gets at least 3 swings at 3 balls in the strike zone during a bat she is going to make solid contact at least once or twice. She is not going to shorten up for anyone. As far as she is concerned that is robbing her swing off what it is capable of. Fielders are too good for her to be just putting the ball in play or not hitting it as hard and giving fielders an easier time. She is going to whack it and a strike out is sometimes a thing that happens.

This^^^

We challenge our girls to be a predator or hunter of the ball with less than 2 strikes (and yes we're assuming a quality pitcher...not one who throws 4 balls in a row in the dirt...). Once we get to 2 strikes we switch our mode from Predator to Battle mode. Battle mode...not going to give up an easy strike or something close in the umpires zone. Even if we foul some off we keep battling until we can square one up.

Girls on our team that have really bought into this approach no longer are concerned with 2 strikes....we don't change our mechanics we just change a little of what we might let go by with less than 2 strikes. The girls that have bought in are having much more success with 2 strikes and then base hits...our two out production has also been on the rise.

Eagle6: to your OP...i didn't hear the podcast...but IMHO a strikeout can be the same as a flyball out...but a K can also be better than a GBO. With less than 2 outs and runner on 1st....a GBO could be an easy double play.....I'd rather take the K with a player swinging like she's capable of...then just trying to put the ball in play and giving up a GIDP.

just our philosophy and approach.
 
Apr 28, 2019
1,423
83
I have listened to numbers guys in baseball for several years and I guess some of it goes back to Money Ball, but I have a problem with the "out is an out" philosophy in baseball and softball. Was listening to a former college softball coach on a podcast say that you don't shorten up with 2 strikes to "put the ball in play". His comment was a weak fly ball to left is an out just like a strikeout. I think that is a poor analogy. Those outs may be the same, but with a runner on second and no outs, 2 ground balls to the second baseman is 2 outs, but a run has scored. That is vastly different from 2 strikeouts. Why is it that everyone is afraid of "productive" outs just so they can try for the homerun? I'm not a longstanding or even a good coach, but I have tried to get my girls to understand that they are free to take BIG Hacks on the first 2 strikes (those are her strikes), but that 3rd strike is the TEAM's. I don't hate sabermetrics, but I just don't know how coaches don't promote the productive out. Sorry for the rant, but do want to know what the folks on here think.
I agree with you 100%. Make the defense move and make a play! Move the runners from base to base. A strikeout is a non productive out. It does nothing to help the team. Put the ball in play!!! There are these things called errors and bad decisions that the other team might make that are beneficial to your team!!!
I hate strikeouts!!! Put the ball in play or work a walk!!!
 
Nov 26, 2010
4,784
113
Michigan
Any ball hit into play is better then a strikeout, unless it leads to a double play. But so many things can happen when the ball is hit. An error or a runner advancing on the out. Put the ball in play and good things happen.
Now lets talk about this whole a walk is as good as a hit BS.
 
Apr 28, 2019
1,423
83
Any ball hit into play is better then a strikeout, unless it leads to a double play. But so many things can happen when the ball is hit. An error or a runner advancing on the out. Put the ball in play and good things happen.
Now lets talk about this whole a walk is as good as a hit BS.
Absolutely right. A walk is as good as a hit. Makes the pitcher work. Especially when you are trying to get a rally going and one of your worst hitters is in the box.
Mindset should always be trying to make contact. Gotta see a good pitch to rip it.
My pet peve is a sacrifice bunt. We only get 21 outs I’m not giving any away. If you need to bunt the intent should be to get on base. Yes get the runner over but get yourself on base as well. A forgotten tactic a drag bunt works well. Don’t much care for slapping.
 

softgabby

Gear Empress
Mar 10, 2016
1,073
83
Just behind home plate
I'll speak as someone in the trenches and how I see things as a batter in this situation.

With less than two outs and a/multiple runners in scoring position, I'm up there looking for a ball I can hit...hard. I don't want to hit a soft grounder. I don't want to hit a blooper and just deposit the ball in left-center, center or right-center. I want to hit a ball hard and I want to maybe hit it to someone but preferably, I want to aim gap-to-gap if I possibly can. I mean, I could hook a ball down the line and hope it clears one of the corner bases before going foul so it stays fair. If I have to be out, I'll sacrifice myself to either advance the runner to the next base or even a runner home.

With two outs, my approach changes. I'm going to be more selective with what I'm going to swing at. If a pitcher is putting the ball just anywhere, I'll take the walk any time they want to give it to me. But I'm going to be looking to either put a ball in play or I'm looking to foul a pitch off so I can have another pitch to look at. I'll do this in particular especially if the other team has changed pitchers and I'm trying to get her timing down. But also, if I can make a pitcher work to get that last out of the inning, then I've done my job in wearing the pitcher down.

If a pitcher is all over the place no matter the situation, I'll take the walk any day of the week. I'll also keep fouling pitches off even if there are less than two outs and I feel like I want to make the pitcher work to get me out.
 

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